• Geopolitical tensions between US-China appeared to thaw; a resumption in high-level military communications was agreed at the Biden-Xi meeting.
  • Temporary ceasefire in the Middle East allowed for an exchange of hostages, assisting investment markets to take a more positive stance.
  • Australian stock market had a stellar month, providing a return of +5.0%.
  • Global equity markets rebounded by +4.5%(unhedged) in November, as did global bonds +3.2%. Global stocks recorded their strongest month in three years, nearly retracting their summer losses, in a broad-based rally that saw cyclical sectors outperform.
  • Bond yields declined sharply; the US 10-year note yield fell by 60bps, delivering the best monthly return in more than 10 years.
  • Other good news in November came from the commodities sector, Brent Crude oil prices fell for a second month in a row – despite further OPEC+ production cuts – to US$82.83 p/b, while gold remained above US$2,000.
  • US Federal Reserve left its target interest rate range unchanged at 5.25 – 5.50% – a second consecutive pause – but Powell did not rule out further rate hikes.
  • The UK economy stagnated in Q3, defying expectations of a contraction. With UK inflation headline inflation (CPI) falling by more than 2% to 4.6% in October.
  • Euro area headline (CPI) and core inflation (CPI minus components that exhibit large fluctuations month to month) declined further in November, to 2.4% and 3.6% respectively.
  • As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia Board (RBA) increased the official Cash Rate by 0.25% pa to 4.35% at its November meeting. Annual inflation in Australia fell to 4.90% in October from 5.60% in September.
  • The RBA is one of a few central banks still lifting interest rates, and where market expectations are, we may possibly see a further move higher.
  • The Australian dollar recovered toward 0.62 as investors reassessed US monetary policy settings in 2024 and moved toward expectations of lower rates, thereby lessening the appeal for the US dollar.
November 2023 Download Report